The Shifting Dynamics of European Relations in the Maghreb
This month, the geopolitical landscape of the Maghreb has been notably influenced by high-level visits from key European leaders, highlighting the growing rivalry between Morocco and Algeria. Within just six days, French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu visited Morocco, Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune was in Berlin, and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez made his way to Algiers. These visits underscore how the competition between these two North African nations is increasingly shaping the policies of European governments.
The Core of the Rivalry: Western Sahara
At the heart of the Morocco-Algeria rivalry lies the contentious issue of Western Sahara. Morocco claims sovereignty over most of the territory and has made its stance on this issue a litmus test for foreign partnerships. Conversely, Algeria supports the Polisario Front, which advocates for the region’s independence. This fundamental disagreement creates a complex diplomatic landscape for European nations, as their support for one side can lead to significant repercussions with the other.
Leverage and Influence in the Region
Both Morocco and Algeria wield considerable influence in the region, each offering unique advantages to European governments. Morocco is seen as a stable partner, providing intelligence and counterterrorism cooperation, migration management, and investment opportunities. On the other hand, Algeria boasts significant natural gas reserves and a robust domestic market, making it a key player in energy diplomacy and regional security.
France’s Strategic Shift Towards Morocco
France’s recent diplomatic maneuvers illustrate the complexities of navigating these relationships. In 2024, President Emmanuel Macron endorsed Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara, a move that ended a period of tension with Rabat but ignited a crisis with Algeria, which promptly recalled its ambassador. Lecornu’s visit to Morocco further solidified this shift, as France seeks to build a comprehensive strategic partnership with Rabat.
During this visit, discussions encompassed a wide range of topics, including energy, investment, security, and migration. Notably, the two countries explored a direct electricity link that could facilitate renewable energy exports from Morocco to France. For France, strengthening ties with Morocco is a way to maintain influence in Africa, especially as its presence in the Sahel has diminished.
The Cost of Aligning with Morocco
However, this alignment has not come without consequences. France’s relationship with Algeria, already strained by historical grievances and migration issues, has deteriorated further. The endorsement of Morocco’s position on Western Sahara has led to stalled security cooperation and increased obstacles for French businesses in Algeria. Despite attempts to reopen dialogue, France remains steadfast in its support for Morocco, demonstrating the high stakes involved.
Spain’s Balancing Act
Spain finds itself in a similar predicament. In 2022, the Sánchez government shifted from neutrality to endorsing Morocco’s autonomy proposal for Western Sahara, a decision that initially helped mend relations with Rabat but also provoked a backlash from Algeria. Following this shift, Algeria suspended its friendship treaty with Spain and halted most non-gas trade, although it continued to honor gas contracts.
Sánchez’s recent visit to Algiers signifies Spain’s attempt to recalibrate its relationships. The two nations agreed to revive high-level bilateral mechanisms and deepen cooperation on various fronts, including energy and security. This balancing act is crucial for Spain, which relies on Algeria for gas supplies while also needing Morocco for trade and migration management.
Algeria’s Expanding European Partnerships
Tebboune’s visit to Berlin further illustrates Algeria’s strategy to diversify its European partnerships. Discussions with Germany focused on energy, investment, and security, including the potential export of hydrogen from the Maghreb to Europe. This relationship is not solely defined by the rivalry with Morocco; it also reflects Algeria’s broader ambitions to enhance its standing in Europe.
The Broader Implications for European Policy
The rivalry between Morocco and Algeria is no longer just a bilateral issue; it is reshaping how European governments approach their relationships in North Africa. France has made Morocco a cornerstone of its regional strategy, while Spain is working to mend ties with Algeria without sacrificing its partnership with Rabat. Meanwhile, Algeria is actively seeking to broaden its European alliances as France deepens its commitment to Morocco.
In this evolving landscape, Morocco and Algeria are not merely competing for Western support; they are effectively influencing how European nations organize their policies in the Maghreb. The dynamics of this rivalry are complex and multifaceted, with significant implications for regional stability and international relations.
